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A few days, and somewhere between eight and twenty messages. Long enough to know they are real and that talking to them is pleasant; short enough that the conversation has not become a substitute for meeting.
Past a week or so the odds get worse rather than better. Momentum fades, both of you build an idea of the other person that the real one has to compete with, and one of you quietly moves on.
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The most common way a promising match dies is not rejection. It is a conversation that stayed enjoyable and never became a plan, until one person got busy for four days and neither restarted it.
There is also the expectation problem. Two weeks of good texting sets a bar that a first coffee with a nervous stranger cannot clear, and people read ordinary first-meeting awkwardness as absence of chemistry.
The chat before a first date has a small job. It confirms they are a real person who matches their photos, that talking to them is easy rather than a chore, and that you share at least one thing worth talking about over coffee. Once those three are settled, more messages add little.
Notice the difference between screening someone and getting to know them. You get to know someone in person, where tone, humor and body language do most of the work. Text is good for screening and poor at almost everything else, so doing all the getting-to-know-you by message mostly uses up the topics you would have had on the date.
When the conversation is going well, that is the moment to suggest something, not a reason to wait. Tie it to what you are already discussing: 'We clearly need to settle this pizza argument in person - are you free Wednesday evening for a slice near the park?'
Offer a specific place and a choice of two times. A vague 'we should meet sometime' gets a vague 'yes, definitely' and then nothing, because neither of you has anything concrete to agree to.
Some people genuinely need longer, particularly if they have had a bad experience. Say plainly that you would rather meet somewhere public and short, and offer that. Most hesitation is about safety rather than interest, and naming it helps.
If it goes past two weeks with no willingness to meet and no reason given, treat it as what it is: someone who enjoys the texting. That is allowed, and it is not what you are there for.
One short video call is worth a week of messages. It confirms they are who they say, and it takes most of the awkwardness out of the first ten minutes in person. If someone refuses any video call and any meeting for weeks, that is worth noticing, because it can mean they are not who their photos suggest.
Tell someone where you are going and when, meet somewhere public, and arrange your own way home. This is ordinary practice, not paranoia, and nobody worth meeting will be offended by it.
Sometimes you do everything right and it still goes quiet. People get busy, meet someone else, or realize they are not ready to date. A conversation that dies after you suggested a plan is not a verdict on you - it is often just timing.
Send one friendly follow-up after a few days if you want, something light like 'Still up for that coffee sometime this week?' If that gets nothing, put your attention on the people who are replying.