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Roughly ten to fifteen messages, or day two to three. The signal that matters is not the count - it is whether they are adding things you did not ask for. If they are, ask, and if replies are getting shorter, fix the conversation before you ask.
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When someone volunteers detail beyond the question, they are engaged. That is the moment. Waiting past it is the most common way a good thread turns into nothing.
Look for questions asked back, mentions of plans or places, short stories nobody prompted, and replies that come quickly and at length. Any one of those means the conversation has something to build on, and an invitation will feel like the natural next step rather than a leap.
If replies are short and purely responsive, asking will usually get a soft no. Fix the conversation first. Ask something more specific than 'how was your weekend', such as a question about something in their profile, and see whether the energy changes.
Asking in the first three messages tells them the profile was irrelevant, which is not flattering even when it is meant to be. It also gives them nothing to base a yes on, because they have no sense yet of what talking to you is like.
A few real exchanges first - about something specific from their profile, a shared interest, a place you both know - make the ask feel like a continuation instead of a cold pitch. That does not need to take long, just long enough that you both know a little more than a photo.
After a week the thread becomes a habit rather than a prelude, and asking then feels like a change of terms. Most threads that run more than a week never convert. The longer you text, the more each of you builds a picture of the other that a real meeting has to live up to.
If you are already past that point, do not apologize for the delay or explain it. Just ask plainly and specifically, and accept the answer.
Make it specific and small. 'I've been meaning to try the coffee place on Elm Street - want to go Saturday morning?' is easy to say yes to, while 'we should hang out sometime' asks them to do the planning. A short, public first meeting with a natural end time lowers the stakes for both of you.
If they say they are busy but suggest another time, that is a yes. If they say they are busy and offer nothing, you can leave the door open once and then let it go.
A clear no, or a vague answer twice, is your answer. Thank them, do not argue or ask for a reason, and move your attention to conversations that are going somewhere. Asking at the right time does not guarantee a yes - it just means the no tells you about them rather than about your timing.